The Attacks on Iran

“Anyone leading our world?” That in capital letters was the heading I gave two weeks back to my weekly column in this space. Last night, i.e. on Monday the 16th, as Trump abruptly left the G-7 summit being hosted by Canada’s Prime Minister Carney, and Israel’s attack on Iran entered its fourth day without eliciting any criticism from leaders of seven of the world’s most influential countries, we had confirmation that in today’s world a regional power that has a superpower’s backing can carry out large-scale bombings and a series of high-level assassinations against a country not far from it without inviting a reprimand from the world’s leaders, let alone any action to stop the aggression. 

In fact the joint statement issued by the leaders of the G7 countries from the summit’s venue – from Kananaskis in western Canada’s mountainous country – blamed Iran, calling it “the principal source of regional instability and terror.” Affirming “Israel's right to defend itself,” the leaders’ statement added, “We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.” 

The G7 countries are the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan. The EU is an additional member. In Kananaskis, their leaders pledged to "remain vigilant to the implications for international energy markets and stand ready to coordinate, including with like-minded partners, to safeguard market stability." No one will deny that oil prices matter. But some may ask if the independence of countries is of no consequence, and whether Iran, no mean country, has no right to defend itself.

The G7 statement came as Trump left the leaders’ meeting saying he needed to focus on the spiraling crisis in the Middle East. Before leaving, Trump however said in a social media post that “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” The remark confirmed that he was not going to stand in Israel’s way, and that Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, had been right in claiming earlier that there was “full and complete coordination with the Americans." 

After typing the above, here is what I see on BBC: 

“EASY TARGET” 

“Donald Trump has just posted a follow up on social media. He says: ‘We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out, at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or [at] American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!’” 

The post seems addressed to the government and the people of Iran. BBC also reports that Trump has posted to say that “we have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.” The BBC story underlines that in this post Trump uses the expression “we.” Earlier he had tried to claim that Israel was acting by itself. Now he has confirmed Netanyahu’s statement of “full and complete coordination.” 

CNN reports that President Donald Trump disputed his own director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, on how developed Iran's nuclear capabilities are and said Iran was on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapon when Israel struck in recent days. 

It seems that Gabbard had offered the assessment that Iran was not close to developing a nuclear bomb. 

Israel is the only Middle East power possessing nuclear bombs at this time. It had justified its attacks by claiming that Tehran was close to building a nuclear weapon, a charge that Iran consistently denied. Some had suggested that Iran’s recent talks with Trump’s emissaries about its uranium enrichment program -- aimed “solely for peaceful purposes,” as Tehran has claimed, whether or not honestly -- were the reason for Israel’s attack, that Israel wanted those talks to fail. Others argued that the talks merely gave Israel time to prepare its attack on Iran. 

REGIME’S SURVIVAL 

Those talks between Iran and Washington, and what lay behind them, are matters of little consequence now. One immediate question is whether Iran’s regime will survive. Netanyahu has openly exhorted the regime’s opponents in Iran to remove Khamenei and his supporters. Over the years, many in Iran have courageously opposed their country’s undemocratic regime, but will there be sympathy in Iran for Netanyahu after his bombings of different parts of Iran and after the Gaza devastations? 

What will tip the scale for the people of Iran? Their unhappiness with the regime? A notion that regime change may end their difficulties? For Tehran’s ten million people to evacuate the capital, which is what Trump has asked them to do, will not be a painless exercise. Will anger at Israel’s injury to their independence and their national pride bring the population closer to the regime? Indications in one direction or another may come before long. 

Another immediate question may be whether the U.S. will give Israel the buster-bombers it apparently requires for blasting Iran’s heavily protected base, buried, as we are told, deep below a mountain in Fordo, not far south from the city of Qom, a base where the enriching of uranium has seemingly gone on for some time, or help Israel in other ways to achieve that objective. A related critical question, applicable also to Israeli bombings of other Iranian sites linked to the enriching of uranium, is about the risks of radiation spreading as a result of the bombings. 

MORE QUESTIONS 

Having listed these obvious questions, there are some others. Firstly, does your right to defend your nation also mean the right to use fighters, bombers, and bombs supplied by a superpower against an independent nation close to you? Wouldn’t acceptance of such aggression add to our world’s lawlessness? Military action may receive legitimacy not because country A has the ability to inflict damage, but because the UN Security Council concludes that military action is called for. Do Israel’s unilateral attacks on Iran have the UN’s authority?

Again, while people in Israel might applaud what are presented as daring successes of elimination, what will be the longer-term impact of assassinating key individuals in Iran, and of violating a proud nation’s boundaries? Won’t it be negative for Israel’s security? In great need of friends in its neighborhood, hasn’t Israel invited enmity’s multiplication? 

The leaders of Iran’s regime also face unpleasant truths. For it appears that the “elimination” in their homes, perhaps in their beds, of crucial leaders in Iran’s military and security establishment was in many cases achieved because of the active collaboration and participation in the exercise by Iranians living in Iran. Why were these Iranians this deeply alienated from the regime? If the regime survives the attacks, this is one of the questions it must ask. 

According to the BBC, President Macron of France has told the G7 in Canada that it would be a big error for a regime change in Iran to be achieved through military means. “I believe we need the United States of America to bring everyone back around the table,” he says. 

What will we see in the hours and days to come? More bombings? More missiles being fired? A regime change? Talks? Meanwhile there are reports that more than fifty people may have been killed by bullets at an aid center in southern Gaza as large crowds turned up for food.